Stockton-on-Tees Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) and Alternative Provision Sufficiency Statement 2026 to 2029
Our projections - what happens if things stay the same?
Table 2 show the current and projected numbers of children and young people with Education Health and Care (EHC) plans by provision, current and projected (internal data).
| Calendar year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | % increase (2026 to 2029) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Years settings including Private, Voluntary and Independent (PVI) settings | 50 | 55 | 59 | 66 | 32 |
| Mainstream schools or academies | 927 | 989 | 1080 | 1172 | 26 |
| Specialist bases in mainstream settings | 243 | 260 | 283 | 306 | 26 |
| Maintained special schools or special academies | 752 | 835 | 900 | 965 | 28 |
| Independent schools | 269 | 267 | 292 | 317 | 18 |
| Alternative Provision | 18 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 11 |
| Mainstream Post 16 provision | 327 | 320 | 344 | 368 | 13 |
| Specialist Post 16 institutions | 27 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 19 |
| Elective Home Education (EHE) | 53 | 60 | 66 | 70 | 32 |
| Other arrangements by LA (education other than at school) | 54 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 37 |
| Other (including hospital schools where applicable) | 77 | ||||
| Total number | 2797 | 2895 | 3140 | 3390 |
Using EHC plans as a proxy indicator to describe the highest level or more complex need, it is projected that more children and young people will require support across all education settings in the coming years. If current patterns continue without changes to inclusion, early intervention or to existing provision:
- more children and young people may require special school or independent school provision (projected 30% increase in demand for special school and 18% increase in demand for independent school provision) which may mean travelling further and reduced opportunities to learn alongside their peers
- there may be an increase in demand on the Council to put in place arrangements for education other than at school (EOTAS) reflecting an increase in children and young people who can not have their needs met in an education setting (projected 37% increase). Without change more children may experience reduced social interaction and reduced access to consistent education environments.
- there will be more children and young people with SEND needs educated within mainstream schools (projected 32% increase in early years, 26% increase within mainstream schools and 13% in post 16 provision). Without sufficient inclusive education and early support from across the system children and young people may struggle to have their needs met which may increase the risk of escalation.
- the number of specialist places within mainstream settings (currently SEND or ARP units) will need to grow to meet demand (projected 26% increase), for children and young people these settings can provide additional support while maintaining their connection to their local school and community.
