School Organisation Plan 2025

Methodology

Data sources

The following data sources have been used to formulate the pupil forecasts:

• the latest (anonymised) spring (January 2025) school census data, providing information on the pupils attending mainstream schools in each planning area
• the number of pupils on roll recorded in the spring (January 2025) school census data for the previous academic year
• the number of Reception and Year 7 allocated places for September 2025
• details on each mainstream school
• a trajectory of planned housing growth
• actual births sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) live births data series
• projected births sourced from the latest official Sub-National Population Projection (SNPP) from the ONS

Data processing

The first stage of the projection process calculates aggregate 'target' figures for each primary and secondary year group. These target totals are derived by rolling forward actual roll numbers using cohort ratios based on historical school census data.

A cohort ratio is calculated by dividing the Spring 2025 Year 9 total by the 2023 Year 8 figure, for example, with change in the cohort size from one academic year to the next associated with migration effects. For Reception year, the cohort ratio is calculated using birth totals from five-years earlier. For use in the model, this calculation is averaged over three years of data.

The targets form the overall controlling totals for the individual school and planning area projections that are presented in the final set of primary and secondary projection results.

Birth statistics are a key input to the projection process, a trajectory of future births has been derived from the ONS 2018-based SNPP,  released in March 2020. In the 2025 model update, estimated births, derived from ONS 2018-based population projections, have been rebased to the births total for academic year 2023 to 2024.

The calculation of the cohort ratios takes account of children that live in Stockton that is different to the location of their school. The balance is for a small net outflow for primary schools but for a net inflow for secondary schools.

Births

The number of new births registered in the borough is a key indicator of future pupil numbers. From 2,308 births in 2005 to 2006, the birth total for Stockton-on-Tees rose to a peak of 2,474 in 2011 to 2012. The birth numbers then gradually reduced by an average of -2.9% per annum, reaching 1,839 in 2020 to 2021, before increasing slightly in the following years, reaching 1,984 in 2023 to 2024.

As a result of the annual growth in births to 2011 to 2012, the total number of pupils on roll in Stockton-on-Tees primary schools increased, reaching its peak in Spring 2019, reducing thereafter as the smaller cohorts of children born after 2011 to 2012 reach primary school age.

Beyond Spring 2029, the numbers of primary pupils on roll will be driven by estimated future birth numbers (from 2024 to 2025 onwards), determined by fertility trends and the size of the resident female population aged 15 to 49. Rebasing the most recent ONS birth projections to Stockton-on-Tees latest birth registration count suggests a further decline in birth numbers. Given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year.

Primary pupil projections

After adjusting the figures for the net build in each school admission zone, the pupil projections have been scaled to the Local Authority's Council's overall targets. These targets are based on the trends evident in previous 'staying-on' rates between primary year-groups for Stockton-on-Tees in total. The allocations to Reception classes for September 2025, have been used as a proxy for the Reception intake in Spring 2026.

Reception pupil numbers are expected to decrease to 2,046 in Spring 2026 (reflecting the allocations to Reception for September 2025), further declining to 2,037 in Spring 2027 and 2,012 in Spring 2028, before increasing slightly to 2,084 in Spring 2029. This is in line with the fluctuating births between 2020 to 2021 and 2023 to 2024. From Spring 2030 onwards, the number of Reception pupils are estimated to decline, in line with the estimated reduction in births in successive years.

The total number of primary pupils on roll (Reception to Year 6) continues to fall throughout the projection period, from 16,045 in Spring 2026 to 14,918 in Spring 2036.

There is more certainty associated with the projected Reception intake to Spring 2029, as the children have already been born. Later projections contain a higher degree of uncertainty due to the challenges associated with predicting future fertility trends. The most recent ONS birth projections for Stockton-on-Tees suggest a further decline in birth numbers but, given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections presented in this report assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year. These longer-term birth projections are higher than those used in the 2024 round of pupil projections (1,851 per year).

Secondary pupil projections

After adjusting the figures for the net build in each school admission zone, the pupil projections have been scaled to the council's overall targets. These targets are based on the trends evident in previous 'staying-on' rates between secondary year-groups for Stockton-on-Tees in total. Allocations for schools in September 2025 have been used as a proxy for Year 7 intake in Spring 2025.

Year 7 pupil numbers are expected to gradually decline throughout the projection period, in line with the trend in births, reaching 2,152 in Spring 2036. The total number of secondary pupils on roll is projected to peak at 12,071 in Spring 2026, declining thereafter to 10,507 in Spring 2036

It is assumed that the proportion of pupils staying on in Year 12 from Year 11 remains steady at a rate equivalent to an average of the last three years. Similarly, the proportion progressing into Year 13 is assumed to remain consistent.

There is more certainty associated with the projected Year 7 intake to Spring 2036, as the children have already been born. Later projections contain a higher degree of uncertainty due to the challenges associated with predicting future fertility trends. The most recent ONS birth projections for Stockton-on-Tees suggest a further decline in birth numbers but, given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections presented in this report assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year. These longer-term birth projections are higher than those used in the 2024 round of pupil projections (1,851 per year).

Housing and pupil yield

The latest information on expected housing developments and trajectories, provides detail on the location, size and phasing of planned housing development sites. Used to inform the pupil projections, the planning permission status and number of 'family homes' (those with 2 plus bedrooms and not specifically designed for older age-groups) associated with each development have also been provided.

The pupil projection model allocates the pupil impact of each housing development to a school admission zone (where applicable). This process is completed for both Community-Academy-Free Schools and for Roman Catholic (RC) schools, generating a family-home housing impact for each year of the projection period.

Pupil yield factors have been calculated specifically for the local authority area. On average, each 100 new family homes are expected to generate approximately 22 primary school aged pupils, 18 non RC and 4 RC; equivalent to 3.1 pupils per year group (2.6 non-RC and 0.5 RC).

Pupil yield factors have been calculated specifically for the local authority area. On average, each 100 new family homes are expected to generate approximately 13 secondary school aged pupils, 10 non RC and 3 RC; equivalent to 2.6 pupils per year group (2.1 non-RC and 0.5 RC).

Ingleby Manor Free School overlaps other admission zones, it covers all of All Saints and some of Conyers and Thornaby. All the new builds in the admission zone of Ingleby Manor have been set to impact the projections for the school but to a lesser extent due to the shared zone, the pupil yield from the new builds has been set to share the pupils between Ingleby Manor and All Saints.

Due to only part of Ingleby Manor's zone overlapping Conyers and Thornaby, no adjustments have been made to the pupil yield associated with these schools as it would then impact all the new builds in these zones but some are unlikely to impact Ingleby Manor.

Cross-border movement

Small adjustments have been factored into for cross border movement from pupils migrating into the Billingham and Wolviston planning area from Hartlepool Borough Council and similarly from Stockton South planning area (Thornaby) into Middlesbrough.

Planning area and borough-level pupil projections

The following projection tables are taken from the 2025 SCAP return and incorporate the Published Admission Numbers (PAN) for both Primary and Secondary Schools in each planning area, the allocated Reception and Year 7 only cohorts and the number of children expected in each of the subsequent years of entry.

Billingham and Wolviston: Primary and Secondary

This area includes thirteen primary schools with twelve being academies including the free school Wynyard CE Primary. Three academies are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below. 

Table 8 - Primary school places: 8080001 Billingham and Wolviston

Capacity: 510

Some schools are continuing to experience lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity. The council are monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

The impact is that three academies are now operating lower PAN's namely Bewley (Spark Education Trust) reducing from 60 places to 45, Pentland (1Excellence Trust) reducing from 45 to 30 and Priors Mill CE (Melrose Learning Trust) reducing from 75 to 60.

The Free School (Wynyard CE) remains as one of only three schools that are oversubscribed, however it does displace children from other schools in Stockton and Durham (Sedgefield). It is seen a constant increase in demand for places from Hartlepool Borough Council (HBC) children also, albeit from homes located in Wynyard but located in the HBC.

There is still another Free School albeit sited within HBC Wynyard that has received pre-opening approval from the DfE, although there is no indication of when it will open. At present no Stockton children within this planning area are unplaced due to the significant surplus available already within these schools, which as indicated will meet any projected demand.  

Table 9 - Secondary school places: 8080007 Billingham and Wolviston

This area has two schools, one a community school maintained by the council and the other an Academy. For September 2025 the Academy Trust has reduced St Michael's Catholic School intake to 200 from 210 (reflected below) which will reduce further to 180 places for admission in September 2026.

Capacity: 530

Traditionally the two schools accept pupils across Billingham and Wolviston including Wynyard both Stockton and Hartlepool children. In addition, they also receive applications from 8080008 - Stockton North and Central due to parental preference and a RC primary feeder school into St Michael's Catholic Academy instead of a local Stockton RC secondary. There are also small numbers of residents whose children secure places in another cross-border school, for example, Sedgefield in County Durham.

North Stockton: Primary

This area includes fourteen primary schools (including ten academies). The table below reflects projected Reception intake numbers only. Two schools one academy and the other a VA school are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below. 

Table 10 - Primary school places: 8080002 North Stockton

Capacity: 629

Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, Hardwick Green - from 60 to 30 and St John the Baptist CE - from 45 to 30. However, Enquire Learning Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it.

Central Stockton: Primary

This area includes ten primary schools (including six academies). Two academies are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below. In addition, one academy Trust has increased its PAN for one of its schools.

Table 11 - Primary school places: 8080003 Central Stockton

Capacity: 450

Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

This area sometimes experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area and many parents can access school places at other schools. One RC Academy (St Patrick's) operates a lower PAN than its actual capacity but if demand dictates it will admit up to its capacity of 40 places rather than AN of 30.

Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, The Oak Tree (North Education Trust) - from 60 to 30 and Oxbridge Lane (Prince Regent Street Trust) - from 58 to 30. However Northern Education Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it. Although the latter is in part due to an agreed reduction to overall capacity across the school to ensure the school is fit for purpose due to its old buildings and operating across a split site.

Stockton North and Central Secondary

This area includes five schools all of which are academies.

Table 12 - Secondary school places: 8080008 Stockton North and Central

Capacity: 1017

The council and Outwood Grange Academy Trust (OGAT) have been working to expand Bishopsgarth by 300 places from a 600-place school to 900, to meet future demand from the approved housing schemes along both Harrowgate Lane and Yarm Back Lane demand.

If future demand exceeds supply, then this will be revisited to take the school up to 1050.

As stated above there has always been at least 40 pupils that access provision in 808007 due to the feeder link arrangement with the RC secondary academy.

Primary: Thornaby

This area includes seven primary schools, all of which are academies. One academy is operating a lower PAN for Reception, as indicated in the capacity figure below. 

Table 13 - Primary school places: 8080004 Thornaby

Capacity: 365

Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

Lower pupil numbers have seen the Spark Education Trust reduce the PAN at Bader Primary - from 60 to 45, however the Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it.

This area however experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children will travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area. In addition, some schools tend to admit above their admission number which also adds capacity. This will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Ingleby Barwick

This area includes six primary schools (including 4 academies). Two schools one academy and the other a community school are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below. 

Table 14 - Primary school places: 8080005 Ingleby Barwick

Capacity: 330

Due to lower Reception intakes than expected across this planning area in recent years, has led to two schools to reduce their Reception offer by 30 places each. Firstly, Ingleby Mil Primary from 90 places down to 60 September 2020 and a further reduction of 30 places at Whinstone (an academy) also from 90 to 60 from September 2022. This equates to a revised offer of places in this area of 330.

The council will be monitoring this situation especially with increased housing applications that are expected. However, at present this falling trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the council are mindful this will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Eaglescliffe and Yarm

This area includes ten primary schools all but one is now an academy.

Table 15 - Primary school places: 8080006 Eaglescliffe and Yarm

Capacity: 331

Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the council are mindful this will need to be reviewed especially with recent planning approval for additional homes, to ensure supply meets demand.

Stockton South Secondary

There are 6 schools, all academies including a Free School. Delta Academies Trust have formally agreed to operate a higher PAN for Ingleby Manor Free School by offering 30 additional places due to longer moving forward with its sixth form. This increase is reflected below.

Table 16 - Secondary school places: 8080009 Stockton South

Capacity: 1059

At present several pupils access school places at secondary schools outside of their immediate located admission zone school, namely from the Thornaby area, as a result it leads to surplus in their local school Thornaby Academy (circa 60+) but fills up the more popular ones elsewhere in the planning area. Children from Ingleby Barwick continue to gain places in both Conyers and Egglescliffe.

Due to the excessive number of applications received by some of the schools in this planning, means that there is also the likelihood that those academies will have to admit above their capacity due to successful appeals. This creates a problem in year as it reduces places for children moving into the area wanting a place at their local school.

There is still some movement out of this area with approximately 40 pupils who gain a place at school or schools in another council, for example, Middlesbrough due to one Academy operating an admission policy criterion that accepts pupils from the Thornaby area. There are early indications that some Middlesbrough Borough Council residents, unable to secure a Middlesbrough school place for their children are applying for and in some cases securing places in Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council schools - adding to the pressures in some schools at this current time.

Borough level

Table 17 - Primary

Capacity: 2615

Table 18 - Secondary

Capacity: 2606

It is clear from the table above that the next seven years of projected primary pupil numbers expected to enter secondary in Year 7 above, should be catered for following the councils capital expansion to increase places in some schools. As projected due to lower birth rates, less children will be transitioning from primary into secondary thereafter as per Table 17. Any further expansion will be predicated on future housing schemes, for example, West Stockton to ensure we can meet demand whilst carrying a small surplus of between 5% to 10%.

This document was prepared by Darren Coulton in October 2025.