School Organisation Plan 2025
Section 1: Introduction and purpose of this plan
Although the statutory requirement to publish an annual School Organisation Plan (SOP) was abolished in 2004, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council (the Council) has continued to publish an updated plan to inform schools, parents, and the public. The School Organisation Plan provides information about the number, types and sizes of schools maintained by the Council, Academies and Free Schools.
The Council does however have a statutory duty to ensure that there are enough school places in the borough to meet demand. The Council must therefore plan, organise and commission places for all state-funded schools in Stockton so that high standards are maintained, diverse school communities are created, and fluctuating pupil numbers are managed efficiently.
The demand for school places changes over time - this document is updated every two years. It sets out where the Council currently thinks there will be a need to provide more school places and if there may be a need to provide fewer places over the coming years. Increases in demand can lead to the creation of a new school or the expansion of schools, whereas decreases in demand can lead to a reduction in school provision.
Predicting school demand is a complex task because where children go to school involves a range of different and often conflicting factors, and as a result planning for school places is based on probabilities, not certainties. This means that while projections may be made from robust calculations, they do not offer any guarantees.
It is important for us to be as open and transparent as possible when considering school organisation decisions. We strive to communicate effectively with schools and school communities about the school place pressures in their area. However, the Council must also endeavour to manage expectations regarding school organisation proposals that are less certain. This document does not seek to definitively set out all the actions the Council intends to take in the future, but rather is intended to provide an overview of issues that may arise in Stockton. The Council will only name particular schools in this document when there is sufficient assurance that a proposal will be implemented or where this has already taken place.
This updated School Organisation Plan aims to provide an overview of current and future pupil numbers which supports planning the provision of school places across the borough. This document will be produced every two years and be made available to our schools and partners.
School Place Planning is a critical aspect of the Council's statutory duty to assess the local need for school places to ensure that every child can be provided with a place in a state-funded school in Stockton-on-Tees. The Council needs to demonstrate that they have robust procedures and systems for forecasting pupil numbers taking account of changes in local circumstances to ensure there will be the right number of schools in the right places for the number of pupils expected in the future.
Schools submit data on pupil rolls to the Council in October, January, and May each year through the School Census. Schools are encouraged to play an active role in the planning of pupil place process and to identify at an early stage any concerns with projections that may impact on future school planning.
To enable the Council to gain a clearer understanding of where there are current and anticipated pressures in both primary and secondary school (including Academies) places in the borough, the Council have grouped all schools into specific local planning areas. This will allow more detailed analysis of need and inform decisions regarding the use of funding to meet demand. For Primary we have six planning areas namely Billingham and Wolviston, North Stockton, Central Stockton, Thornaby, Ingleby Barwick and Eaglescliffe and Yarm. For Secondary we operate three, namely Billingham and Wolviston, Stockton North and Central and Stockton South.
This plan also sets out the Council's policies and key aims on school organisation and the procedures required by law for making changes such as opening, closing, or enlarging schools.
The Council uses not only the School Organisation Plan and the data supporting it but also detail from the School Capacity (SCAP) return, in making school place planning decisions. These include increasing school level Published Admission Numbers (PAN's) and Capacity in response to predicted demand for places and the allocation of Basic Need Capital monies to those schools deemed the most appropriate following feasibility options work.
The headlines captured within the School Organisation Plan are also used to inform the commentary, School Capacity and Pupil Forecast data the Council submits in support of the SCAP return to the Department for Education (DfE) annually. The SCAP provides the DfE with information on all schools which are maintained by the Council as well as the data for Academies and Free Schools.
The SCAP is used to inform Key Decisions regarding School Place Planning pressures across the borough and Capital allocation priorities across primary and secondary schools in terms of refurbishment and maintenance. This School Organisation Plan should be read in conjunction with any Capital Papers to Cabinet on future Capital Plans for support and the allocation of appropriate funding.
Section 2: School Place Planning in Stockton-on-Tees
Making major changes to school organisation
Changes to school organisation such as opening new schools, closing schools, or enlarging them cannot happen without consulting everyone likely to be affected. In August 2025 the Department for Education updated its guides that provided information on the procedures established by The Education and Inspections Act 2006 (EIA 2006) and The School Organisation (Prescribed Alterations to Maintained Schools) and (Establishments and Discontinuance of Schools) Regulations 2013. The new guidance sets out how any such proposals are decided. Most new schools will now be established via the Academy or Free School presumption and the related departmental advice describe the department's expectations of how that process should operate.
Academies
An Academy is a state-funded independent school which may have one or more sponsors. An Academy may be put forward in a competition for a new school, or the Council and potential sponsors may approach the government directly to suggest an Academy to replace one or more existing schools. The governing body of an existing school may decide to apply to the Secretary of State to convert to Academy status without a sponsor.
Free schools
A Free School is a new school set up with the consent of the Secretary of State by a group of parents or other interested people. Like an Academy, a Free School is an independent school funded directly by the government.
Other changes to schools
Proposals for other changes such as closing a school, enlarging it, or changing the age range, may be published by the Council or sometimes by school governing bodies. In most situations the Council will decide these proposals. In some circumstances there will be a right of appeal to an adjudicator. In all cases the people likely to be affected by any change - particularly parents, school staff and governors - must be consulted before any decision is taken. The decision-maker must also take account of guidance issued by the government.
More information about school organisation is available on the Department for Education website.
The aim is for schools to be more in charge of their own decisions about size and composition and to be able to respond to what parents want locally without being unduly restricted by process.
Forecasting Primary and Secondary pupil numbers
The Council continues to use the Tees Valley Combined Authority (TVCA) produced and supplied forecasting tables and methodology.
Pupil numbers in primary schools
Pupil numbers entering Reception have continued to fall in recent years in line with national lower birth rates and the number of surplus places in some schools across the six planning areas has increased. This is something we are monitoring as it is predicted to continue for the next couple of years. Overall surplus across the Borough has risen slightly to 18% and expected to rise.
Pupil numbers in secondary schools
A significant number of our secondary schools are oversubscribed reflecting parental choice. In recent years the Council has invested in increasing capacity in several schools to provide a little surplus in each of the three planning areas. This was to accommodate the forecasted growth in the demand for places as previously higher births entered Primary and transitioned into Secondary. At present this represents a surplus of 9% for September 2025.
The Council is mindful that across Stockton-on-Tees, pupil numbers peaked in 2023 to 2024 and have followed national trends as lower births across the Borough have seen a yearly reduction entering Reception since 2016 to 2017. These lower cohorts will increase our surplus position in Secondary in future years. This is evidenced as for September 2025 entry we have placed 2,367 Year 7 children whilst the equivalent September 2025 Reception cohort was only 2,056 - a 13% reduction. With continuing lower birth rates equating to lower primary pupils for at least for the next 3 to 4 years, the gap will increase.
Academies
In Stockton-on-Tees, since the last publication of the School Organisation Plan (SOP) we have seen a steady increase in the number of primary and secondary schools which have converted to Academy status (see Tables 1 to 4 for more details).
Table 1. Primary
Billingham and Wolviston
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Bewley | Spark Education Trust | 01 September 2019 |
| High Clarence | Enquire Learning Trust | 01 September 2023 |
| Oakdene | Enquire Learning Trust | 01 April 2022 |
| Our Lady Most Holy Rosary | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 January 2019 |
| Pentland | 1Excellence MAT | 01 July 2017 |
| Priors Mill CE | Melrose Learning Trust | 01 May 2023 |
| Roseberry | Extol Trust | 01 January 2025 |
| St John's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2016 |
| St Joseph's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2016 |
| St Paul's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2016 |
| Wolviston | Prince Regent Street Trust | 01 October 2018 |
North Stockton
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Crooksbarn | AdAstra Academy Trust | 01 April 2018 |
| Frederick Nattrass | Northern Education Trust | 01 September 2013 |
| Hardwick Green | Enquire Trust | 01 June 2013 |
| Harrow Gate | Enquire Trust | 01 September 2014 |
| Norton | Northern Education Trust | 01 January 2014 |
| Rosebrook | AdAstra Academy Trust | 01 November 2016 |
| St Gregory's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2013 |
| St Josephe's RC (Norton) | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 February 2019 |
| St Mark's CE | 1Excellence MAT | 01 July 2017 |
| Whitehouse | Spark Education Trust | 01 April 2024 |
Central Stockton
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Hartburn | Prince Regent Street Trust | 01 October 2018 |
| Oxbridge Lane | Prince Regent Street Trust | 01 July 2025 |
| St Bede RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 December 2013 |
| St Cuthbert's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2021 |
| St Patrick's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 April 2021 |
| The Oak Tree | Northern Education Trust | 01 September 2013 |
Thornaby
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Bader | Spark Education Trust | 01 September 2017 |
| Christ the King RC | Nicholas Postgate Catholic Academy Trust | 01 September 2015 |
| Harewood | Lingfield Trust | 01 September 2024 |
| Mandale Mill | Lingfield Trust | 01 May 2025 |
| St Patrick's RC | Nicholas Postgate Catholic Academy Trust | 01 September 2015 |
| Thornaby CE | Dales Academy Trust | 01 July 2019 |
| Village | Prince Regent Street Trust | 01 October 2018 |
Ingleby Barwick
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Barley Fields | Prince Regent Street Trust | 01 March 2023 |
| St Francis of Assisi CE | Dales Academy Trust | 01 August 2019 |
| St Therese of Lisieux RC | Nicholas Postgate Catholic Academy Trust | 01 September 2015 |
| Whinstone | Spark Education Trust | 01 December 2017 |
Eaglescliffe and Yarm
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Egglescliffe CE | CE Diocese of Durham MAT | 01 November 2017 |
| Junction Farm | Spark Education Trust | 01 February 2014 |
| Kirklevington | Spark Education Trust | 01 June 2018 |
| Layfield | Spark Education Trust | 01 September 2018 |
| Levendale | Spark Education Trust | 01 April 2019 |
| Preston | Lingfield Trust | 01 April 2021 |
| St Mary's CE | CE Diocese of Durham MAT | 01 November 2018 |
| The Links | Spark Education Trust | 01 August 2016 |
| Yarm | Enquire Trust | 01 September 2015 |
Table 2. Secondary
Billingham and Wolviston
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| St Michael's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 September 2013 |
Stockton North and Central
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| Bishopsgarth | Outwood Grange Academy Trust | 01 November 2016 |
| Grangefield | Northern Education Trust | 01 January 2014 |
| Ian Ramsey CE | Northern Lights Learning Trust | 01 February 2023 |
| North Shore | Northern Education Trust | 01 September 2010 |
| Our Lady and St Bede's RC | Bishop Hogarth Catholic Education Trust | 01 February 2015 |
Stockton South
| School | Sponsor | Date converted |
|---|---|---|
| All Saints CE | Dales Academy Trust | 01 May 2013 |
| Conyers | Spark Education Trust | 01 February 2013 |
| Egglescliffe | Spark Education Trust | 01 August 2016 |
| St Patrick's Catholic College | Nicholas Postgate Catholic Academy Trust | 01 September 2015 |
| Thornaby | Northern Education Trust | 01 September 2010 |
Table 3. Free schools
Billingham and Wolviston
| School | Sponsor | Date opened |
|---|---|---|
| Wynyard CE Primary | Melrose Learning Trust | 01 September 2015 |
Stockton South
| School | Sponsor | Date opened |
|---|---|---|
| Ingleby Manor Free School | Delta Academies Trust | 01 September 2014 |
Table 4. Special schools and others
| School | Sponsor | Date opened |
|---|---|---|
| Abbey Hill Academy | Horizons Specialist Academy Trust | 01 August 2013 |
| Ash Trees Academy | Ascent Academies Trust | 01 November 2014 |
| Green Gates Academy | Horizons Specialist Academy Trust | 01 August 2013 |
| Westlands Adademy | Horizons Specialist Academy Trust | 01 August 2013 |
| Bishopton Centre | Atomix Educational Trust | 01 May 2021 |
Academies are independent schools however for completeness this plan contains information about the number of places in Academies and projections of future student numbers. The number of Academy conversions is up to date as at the time of this report being produced.
Schools in Stockton-on-Tees
Early years education
Education is not compulsory for children under the age of five, but local authorities must ensure that a nursery place is available for every three and four-year-old whose parents want one and for every eligible 2-year-old that meets Government criteria. Every primary school in the Borough contains a nursery unit. In many schools this operates as a Foundation Stage Unit so that children can move between nursery and reception class in a flexible way to meet their individual needs. Additional nursery education places are offered by providers in the private, voluntary, and independent sectors including child minders. Visit the DfE website for further Government advice on early years.
Children in Stockton-on-Tees normally start full-time school in the September following their fourth birthday, but this can be deferred until the age of five at the request of parents.
Primary schools
From 1 September 2023 there were:
- sixty primary schools for children aged 4 to 11 of which 48 are Academies including one Free School
- one special school Academy for children aged up to 11 with a range of special educational needs (Ash Trees)
- one special school Academy for children aged 5 to 16 with a range of emotional and behavioural difficulties (Westlands)
- one pupil referral unit for primary-age pupils temporarily excluded from school (Bishopton Centre), which also converted 1 May 2021
Secondary schools
From 1 September 2023 there were:
- ten schools for pupils aged 11 to 16 of which 9 are Academies
- two schools for pupils aged 11 to 18 of which all are Academies
- one special school Academy for pupils aged 11 to 18 with a range of complex special educational needs (Abbey Hill Academy)
- one special school Academy for children aged 5 to 16 with behavioural, social, and emotional difficulties (Westlands)
- one pupil referral unit for pupils temporarily excluded from school (Bishopton Centre) which also converted 1 May 2021
Post 16 education and training in schools
The 11 to 18 schools in the above have a capacity for 676 children in their school sixth forms, available at the academies of Egglescliffe (400) and Conyers (276). In addition to School Sixth Form provision, learning and skills needs in Stockton-on-Tees are supported by one General Further Education College, one Sixth Form College and several Work Based Learning (WBL) providers offering Apprenticeships and WBL provider offering Foundation Learning.
The two colleges located within the Borough are Stockton Sixth Form College and Stockton Riverside College (SRC). SRC which operates on Teesdale with Bede College and the Skills Academy at Billingham sites.
A diverse range of maintained schools
"Maintained" means that the Council provides the governing bodies of those schools with an annual budget for their running costs. The schools maintained by the Council fall into one of three categories below.
- Community schools are owned by the Council. The Authority employs their staff and controls the admission of pupils.
- Voluntary Controlled schools are also owned by the Authority and operate largely in the same way as community schools. The Council employs their staff and controls the admission of pupils. The main difference is that the school governing body has some members appointed by a voluntary body. All the voluntary controlled schools in Stockton-on-Tees are primary schools associated with the Church of England.
- Voluntary Aided schools belong to a voluntary body (usually one of the Churches) although the Council normally owns their playing fields. The governing bodies of Voluntary Aided schools employ all their staff and control the admission of pupils. The governing body of a Voluntary Aided school normally contributes 10% towards the cost of any capital work on the school buildings, with the remainder funded by Government. The running costs of aided schools are funded by the Council in the same way as other schools.
In some parts of the country there are Foundation Schools. Like voluntary aided schools they own their land and buildings, they employ staff and control admissions, and the Foundation may appoint the majority of the school's governors. New Foundation Schools may be called "Trust Schools." There are no Foundation schools or Trust schools in Stockton-on-Tees.
Academies are not maintained by the Council but are independent schools funded by the government and may be supported by a private sponsor. The sponsor may appoint most governors and has influence over the curriculum of the school. Academies do not have to follow the national curriculum. They may have a longer school day and may employ staff on different conditions of service. Academies do not charge fees to students.
Free Schools are also independent schools funded directly by government and not maintained by Council. Any group (for example parents, a business or community group) may apply to the Secretary of State for permission to establish a Free School if they can demonstrate a demand for new school places.
At present we have two Free Schools - a 750 place secondary school in Stockton South (Ingleby Manor Free School - opened in September 2014) and a 420 place primary school in Billingham and Wolviston (Wynyard CE Primary - opened in September 2015).
The Council are aware that another Free School application has been successful and was given approval by the DfE albeit at a pre-opening stage in terms of the process and is expected to be built within Hartlepool Council's Wynyard development. We expect this proposed Free School will directly impact on primary schools in the Billingham and Wolviston area. Surplus currently stands at 19% and is predicted to increase further with some schools already operating at over 20% surplus and higher.
Both Councils accept that there is always potential for future demand due to the approved or planned housing across sites in both Stockton-on-Tees and Hartlepool Council areas. However, there isn't any clear evidence of sufficient demand at present and for many years to come due to the lower birth rates as alluded to above. The decision to 'approve in principle' of another primary Free School raises concerns as this is not in line with School Place Planning projections and expected low birth rate.
Currently we have available a capacity of 2,618 reception places that includes several schools and academies who have already consulted to reduce their admission number due to lower pupil coupled with around 2000 live births in future years, it is anticipated this will only increase surplus places further.
The Council are also monitoring interest from local developers and sponsors for a potential 900 place secondary Free School in Wynyard which will impact school places in the Billingham and Wolviston planning area. However a previous application has already been refused due to 'sufficient capacity' in the planning area and the Council as a whole and lower pupil yield from the Wynyard area. The Council believes this 'free school' will displace pupils from current schools (if approved) but is not sustainable longer term, as per the previously mentioned lower primary cohorts and those expected in the future due to the lower birth rates.
The Council are confident we will continue to be able to meet the expected demand for secondary places across the Borough with secondary surplus expect to continue to grow year on year as the lower primary cohorts leave and enter Year 7 whilst the predicted lower births in the future.
Table 5 below shows the number of each type of school operating in Stockton-on-Tees from September 2025.
Table 5. School types
| Category | Primary | Secondary |
|---|---|---|
| Community | 9 | 1 |
| Church of England Voluntary Controlled | 1 | 0 |
| Church of England Voluntary Aided | 2 | 0 |
| Roman Catholic Voluntary Aided | 0 | 0 |
| Academy | 47 | 11 |
| Free School | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 60 | 13 |
Federation
A federation is a group of two or more schools that have agreed to come together, often under a single governing body. The Council cannot create a federation of schools. This must be done by the governing bodies of the schools themselves after consulting parents, staff, other schools, and the Council.
The Stockton Borough First Federation was set up on 1 April 2006. This is made up of Abbey Hill School Technology College and Westlands School, two schools that jointly provide for pupils with many kinds of special educational needs. The federation has a single governing body and one executive head teacher. The two schools remain separate schools, each with its own budget, but the single governing body can share resources (including staff) across the two schools. Since 1 September 2013 both schools converted to Academy status and subsequently became a Multi-Academy Trust (MAT) instead of a Federation and were joined by Green Gates and other SEN providers across the North East and Yorkshire.
Demand across the Borough
Early-years places
A free part-time nursery education place is available for every three and four-year-old whose parents want to take it up and for every eligible 2-year-old that meets Government criteria. Information about this can be found on our Early Education and Childcare webpage. This may be in one of the nursery units attached to every primary school in the borough, in a nursery operated by providers in the private, voluntary, and independent sectors or with a child minder. Information about private nursery and childcare providers is available from the Families Information Service at Stockton Information Directory.
Primary school places
The spring schools census collected in January 2025 recorded a total of 18,481 children on roll in the 60 schools across the borough. This included 16,368 children attending the year groups Reception through to Year 6 (primary cohort) against a capacity of 19,813 pupil places as reported in the school capacity survey (SCAP) 2025, providing a surplus of 15%. Table 6 shows the number of children in each year group as at the January 2025 census:
Table 6. Primary pupil numbers January 2025
| Reception | 2154 |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | 2210 |
| Year 2 | 2260 |
| Year 3 | 2370 |
| Year 4 | 2435 |
| Year 5 | 2447 |
| Year 6 | 2492 |
Every school has a Published Admission Number (PAN), this is also referred to as the 'capacity' of children normally admitted into Reception (four-year-olds starting school for the first time). The total Reception capacity for entry in September 2024 (as recorded in SCAP 2025) across all primary schools was 2,655. Overall, in January we had a boroughwide surplus of 17% - though some planning areas have a higher percentage of surplus than others.
Secondary school places
The spring schools census collected in January 2025 recorded a total school population of 12,575 on roll in the 13 schools across the Borough. This included 11,997 children attending (Year 7 to Year 11) against a capacity of 12,665 pupil places (excluding School Sixth Form places of 676 which there were 578 recorded on roll) reported in SCAP 2025. Overall, in January we had a boroughwide surplus of %. Table 7 shows the number of children in each year group as at the January 2025 census:
Table 7. Secondary pupil numbers January 2025
| Year 7 | 2433 |
|---|---|
| Year 8 | 2455 |
| Year 9 | 2470 |
| Year 10 | 2383 |
| Year 11 | 2256 |
| Year 12 | 288 |
| Year 13 | 290 |
There have been more pupil numbers entering Year 7 than there are leaving Year 11. In Table 7 it represents a 7.8% increase in the number of pupils entering secondary between September 2020 (Year 11) and September 2024 (Year 7).
Strategy for school investment in Stockton-on-Tees
The key aims of the strategy for Stockton-on-Tees are:
- ensure that schools are maintained in a good condition, with maintenance work undertaken
- identify opportunities to improve the school stock
- provide sufficient school places across the Borough and have between 5% to 10% surplus places to:
- provide every primary pupil a place within 2 miles
- provide every secondary pupil a school place within 3 miles
Section 3: Pupil projections
Methodology
Data sources
The following data sources have been used to formulate the pupil forecasts:
- the latest (anonymised) spring (January 2025) school census data, providing information on the pupils attending mainstream schools in each planning area
- the number of pupils on roll recorded in the spring (January 2025) school census data for the previous academic year
- the number of Reception and Year 7 allocated places for September 2025
- details on each mainstream school
- a trajectory of planned housing growth
- actual births sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) live births data series
- projected births sourced from the latest official Sub-National Population Projection (SNPP) from the ONS
Data processing
The first stage of the projection process calculates aggregate 'target' figures for each primary and secondary year group. These target totals are derived by rolling forward actual roll numbers using cohort ratios based on historical school census data.
A cohort ratio is calculated by dividing the Spring 2025 Year 9 total by the 2023 Year 8 figure, for example, with change in the cohort size from one academic year to the next associated with migration effects. For Reception year, the cohort ratio is calculated using birth totals from five-years earlier. For use in the model, this calculation is averaged over three years of data.
The targets form the overall controlling totals for the individual school and planning area projections that are presented in the final set of primary and secondary projection results.
Birth statistics are a key input to the projection process, a trajectory of future births has been derived from the ONS 2018-based SNPP, released in March 2020. In the 2025 model update, estimated births, derived from ONS 2018-based population projections, have been rebased to the births total for academic year 2023 to 2024.
The calculation of the cohort ratios takes account of children that live in Stockton that is different to the location of their school. The balance is for a small net outflow for primary schools but for a net inflow for secondary schools.
Births
The number of new births registered in the borough is a key indicator of future pupil numbers. From 2,308 births in 2005 to 2006, the birth total for Stockton-on-Tees rose to a peak of 2,474 in 2011 to 2012. The birth numbers then gradually reduced by an average of -2.9% per annum, reaching 1,839 in 2020 to 2021, before increasing slightly in the following years, reaching 1,984 in 2023 to 2024.
As a result of the annual growth in births to 2011 to 2012, the total number of pupils on roll in Stockton-on-Tees primary schools increased, reaching its peak in Spring 2019, reducing thereafter as the smaller cohorts of children born after 2011 to 2012 reach primary school age.
Beyond Spring 2029, the numbers of primary pupils on roll will be driven by estimated future birth numbers (from 2024 to 2025 onwards), determined by fertility trends and the size of the resident female population aged 15 to 49. Rebasing the most recent ONS birth projections to Stockton-on-Tees latest birth registration count suggests a further decline in birth numbers. Given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year.
Primary pupil projections
After adjusting the figures for the net build in each school admission zone, the pupil projections have been scaled to the Local Authority's Council's overall targets. These targets are based on the trends evident in previous 'staying-on' rates between primary year-groups for Stockton-on-Tees in total. The allocations to Reception classes for September 2025, have been used as a proxy for the Reception intake in Spring 2026.
Reception pupil numbers are expected to decrease to 2,046 in Spring 2026 (reflecting the allocations to Reception for September 2025), further declining to 2,037 in Spring 2027 and 2,012 in Spring 2028, before increasing slightly to 2,084 in Spring 2029. This is in line with the fluctuating births between 2020 to 2021 and 2023 to 2024. From Spring 2030 onwards, the number of Reception pupils are estimated to decline, in line with the estimated reduction in births in successive years.
The total number of primary pupils on roll (Reception to Year 6) continues to fall throughout the projection period, from 16,045 in Spring 2026 to 14,918 in Spring 2036.
There is more certainty associated with the projected Reception intake to Spring 2029, as the children have already been born. Later projections contain a higher degree of uncertainty due to the challenges associated with predicting future fertility trends. The most recent ONS birth projections for Stockton-on-Tees suggest a further decline in birth numbers but, given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections presented in this report assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year. These longer-term birth projections are higher than those used in the 2024 round of pupil projections (1,851 per year).
Secondary pupil projections
After adjusting the figures for the net build in each school admission zone, the pupil projections have been scaled to the council's overall targets. These targets are based on the trends evident in previous 'staying-on' rates between secondary year-groups for Stockton-on-Tees in total. Allocations for schools in September 2025 have been used as a proxy for Year 7 intake in Spring 2025.
Year 7 pupil numbers are expected to gradually decline throughout the projection period, in line with the trend in births, reaching 2,152 in Spring 2036. The total number of secondary pupils on roll is projected to peak at 12,071 in Spring 2026, declining thereafter to 10,507 in Spring 2036
It is assumed that the proportion of pupils staying on in Year 12 from Year 11 remains steady at a rate equivalent to an average of the last three years. Similarly, the proportion progressing into Year 13 is assumed to remain consistent.
There is more certainty associated with the projected Year 7 intake to Spring 2036, as the children have already been born. Later projections contain a higher degree of uncertainty due to the challenges associated with predicting future fertility trends. The most recent ONS birth projections for Stockton-on-Tees suggest a further decline in birth numbers but, given the uncertainty associated with future fertility trends, the 2025 pupil projections presented in this report assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant from 2028 onwards, at 1,935 per year. These longer-term birth projections are higher than those used in the 2024 round of pupil projections (1,851 per year).
Housing and pupil yield
The latest information on expected housing developments and trajectories, provides detail on the location, size and phasing of planned housing development sites. Used to inform the pupil projections, the planning permission status and number of 'family homes' (those with 2 plus bedrooms and not specifically designed for older age-groups) associated with each development have also been provided.
The pupil projection model allocates the pupil impact of each housing development to a school admission zone (where applicable). This process is completed for both Community-Academy-Free Schools and for Roman Catholic (RC) schools, generating a family-home housing impact for each year of the projection period.
Pupil yield factors have been calculated specifically for the local authority area. On average, each 100 new family homes are expected to generate approximately 22 primary school aged pupils, 18 non RC and 4 RC; equivalent to 3.1 pupils per year group (2.6 non-RC and 0.5 RC).
Pupil yield factors have been calculated specifically for the local authority area. On average, each 100 new family homes are expected to generate approximately 13 secondary school aged pupils, 10 non RC and 3 RC; equivalent to 2.6 pupils per year group (2.1 non-RC and 0.5 RC).
Ingleby Manor Free School overlaps other admission zones, it covers all of All Saints and some of Conyers and Thornaby. All the new builds in the admission zone of Ingleby Manor have been set to impact the projections for the school but to a lesser extent due to the shared zone, the pupil yield from the new builds has been set to share the pupils between Ingleby Manor and All Saints.
Due to only part of Ingleby Manor's zone overlapping Conyers and Thornaby, no adjustments have been made to the pupil yield associated with these schools as it would then impact all the new builds in these zones but some are unlikely to impact Ingleby Manor.
Cross-border movement
Small adjustments have been factored into for cross border movement from pupils migrating into the Billingham and Wolviston planning area from Hartlepool Borough Council and similarly from Stockton South planning area (Thornaby) into Middlesbrough.
Planning area and borough-level pupil projections
The following projection tables are taken from the 2025 SCAP return and incorporate the Published Admission Numbers (PAN) for both Primary and Secondary Schools in each planning area, the allocated Reception and Year 7 only cohorts and the number of children expected in each of the subsequent years of entry.
Billingham and Wolviston: Primary and Secondary
This area includes thirteen primary schools with twelve being academies including the free school Wynyard CE Primary. Three academies are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below.
Table 8 - Primary school places: 8080001 Billingham and Wolviston
Capacity: 510
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 386 |
| 2026 | 392 |
| 2027 | 387 |
| 2028 | 400 |
| 2029 | 397 |
Some schools are continuing to experience lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity. The council are monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.
The impact is that three academies are now operating lower PAN's namely Bewley (Spark Education Trust) reducing from 60 places to 45, Pentland (1Excellence Trust) reducing from 45 to 30 and Priors Mill CE (Melrose Learning Trust) reducing from 75 to 60.
The Free School (Wynyard CE) remains as one of only three schools that are oversubscribed, however it does displace children from other schools in Stockton and Durham (Sedgefield). It is seen a constant increase in demand for places from Hartlepool Borough Council (HBC) children also, albeit from homes located in Wynyard but located in the HBC.
There is still another Free School albeit sited within HBC Wynyard that has received pre-opening approval from the DfE, although there is no indication of when it will open. At present no Stockton children within this planning area are unplaced due to the significant surplus available already within these schools, which as indicated will meet any projected demand.
Table 9 - Secondary school places: 8080007 Billingham and Wolviston
This area has two schools, one a community school maintained by the council and the other an Academy. For September 2025 the Academy Trust has reduced St Michael's Catholic School intake to 200 from 210 (reflected below) which will reduce further to 180 places for admission in September 2026.
Capacity: 530
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 487 |
| 2026 | 488 |
| 2027 | 529 |
| 2028 | 495 |
| 2029 | 474 |
| 2030 | 488 |
| 2031 | 496 |
Traditionally the two schools accept pupils across Billingham and Wolviston including Wynyard both Stockton and Hartlepool children. In addition, they also receive applications from 8080008 - Stockton North and Central due to parental preference and a RC primary feeder school into St Michael's Catholic Academy instead of a local Stockton RC secondary. There are also small numbers of residents whose children secure places in another cross-border school, for example, Sedgefield in County Durham.
North Stockton: Primary
This area includes fourteen primary schools (including ten academies). The table below reflects projected Reception intake numbers only. Two schools one academy and the other a VA school are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below.
Table 10 - Primary school places: 8080002 North Stockton
Capacity: 629
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 515 |
| 2026 | 509 |
| 2027 | 500 |
| 2028 | 518 |
| 2029 | 517 |
Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.
Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, Hardwick Green - from 60 to 30 and St John the Baptist CE - from 45 to 30. However, Enquire Learning Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it.
Central Stockton: Primary
This area includes ten primary schools (including six academies). Two academies are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below. In addition, one academy Trust has increased its PAN for one of its schools.
Table 11 - Primary school places: 8080003 Central Stockton
Capacity: 450
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 384 |
| 2026 | 360 |
| 2027 | 357 |
| 2028 | 371 |
| 2029 | 370 |
Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.
This area sometimes experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area and many parents can access school places at other schools. One RC Academy (St Patrick's) operates a lower PAN than its actual capacity but if demand dictates it will admit up to its capacity of 40 places rather than AN of 30.
Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, The Oak Tree (North Education Trust) - from 60 to 30 and Oxbridge Lane (Prince Regent Street Trust) - from 58 to 30. However Northern Education Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it. Although the latter is in part due to an agreed reduction to overall capacity across the school to ensure the school is fit for purpose due to its old buildings and operating across a split site.
Stockton North and Central Secondary
This area includes five schools all of which are academies.
Table 12 - Secondary school places: 8080008 Stockton North and Central
Capacity: 1017
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 930 |
| 2026 | 932 |
| 2027 | 911 |
| 2028 | 933 |
| 2029 | 913 |
| 2030 | 906 |
| 2031 | 905 |
The council and Outwood Grange Academy Trust (OGAT) have been working to expand Bishopsgarth by 300 places from a 600-place school to 900, to meet future demand from the approved housing schemes along both Harrowgate Lane and Yarm Back Lane demand.
If future demand exceeds supply, then this will be revisited to take the school up to 1050.
As stated above there has always been at least 40 pupils that access provision in 808007 due to the feeder link arrangement with the RC secondary academy.
Primary: Thornaby
This area includes seven primary schools, all of which are academies. One academy is operating a lower PAN for Reception, as indicated in the capacity figure below.
Table 13 - Primary school places: 8080004 Thornaby
Capacity: 365
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 242 |
| 2026 | 249 |
| 2027 | 243 |
| 2028 | 251 |
| 2029 | 250 |
Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.
Lower pupil numbers have seen the Spark Education Trust reduce the PAN at Bader Primary - from 60 to 45, however the Trust will increase the schools PAN if demand dictates it.
This area however experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children will travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area. In addition, some schools tend to admit above their admission number which also adds capacity. This will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.
Primary: Ingleby Barwick
This area includes six primary schools (including 4 academies). Two schools one academy and the other a community school are operating lower PAN for Reception intakes, as indicated in the capacity figure below.
Table 14 - Primary school places: 8080005 Ingleby Barwick
Capacity: 330
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 273 |
| 2026 | 280 |
| 2027 | 278 |
| 2028 | 287 |
| 2029 | 284 |
Due to lower Reception intakes than expected across this planning area in recent years, has led to two schools to reduce their Reception offer by 30 places each. Firstly, Ingleby Mil Primary from 90 places down to 60 September 2020 and a further reduction of 30 places at Whinstone (an academy) also from 90 to 60 from September 2022. This equates to a revised offer of places in this area of 330.
The council will be monitoring this situation especially with increased housing applications that are expected. However, at present this falling trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the council are mindful this will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.
Primary: Eaglescliffe and Yarm
This area includes ten primary schools all but one is now an academy.
Table 15 - Primary school places: 8080006 Eaglescliffe and Yarm
Capacity: 331
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 246 |
| 2026 | 247 |
| 2027 | 247 |
| 2028 | 247 |
| 2029 | 257 |
Some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the council will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the council are mindful this will need to be reviewed especially with recent planning approval for additional homes, to ensure supply meets demand.
Stockton South Secondary
There are 6 schools, all academies including a Free School. Delta Academies Trust have formally agreed to operate a higher PAN for Ingleby Manor Free School by offering 30 additional places due to longer moving forward with its sixth form. This increase is reflected below.
Table 16 - Secondary school places: 8080009 Stockton South
Capacity: 1059
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 1001 |
| 2026 | 947 |
| 2027 | 939 |
| 2028 | 905 |
| 2029 | 869 |
| 2030 | 851 |
| 2031 | 819 |
At present several pupils access school places at secondary schools outside of their immediate located admission zone school, namely from the Thornaby area, as a result it leads to surplus in their local school Thornaby Academy (circa 60+) but fills up the more popular ones elsewhere in the planning area. Children from Ingleby Barwick continue to gain places in both Conyers and Egglescliffe.
Due to the excessive number of applications received by some of the schools in this planning, means that there is also the likelihood that those academies will have to admit above their capacity due to successful appeals. This creates a problem in year as it reduces places for children moving into the area wanting a place at their local school.
There is still some movement out of this area with approximately 40 pupils who gain a place at school or schools in another council, for example, Middlesbrough due to one Academy operating an admission policy criterion that accepts pupils from the Thornaby area. There are early indications that some Middlesbrough Borough Council residents, unable to secure a Middlesbrough school place for their children are applying for and in some cases securing places in Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council schools - adding to the pressures in some schools at this current time.
Borough level
Table 17 - Primary
Capacity: 2615
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 2133 |
| 2026 | 2097 |
| 2027 | 2075 |
| 2028 | 2137 |
| 2029 | 2144 |
Table 18 - Secondary
Capacity: 2606
| Year | Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 2549 |
| 2026 | 2495 |
| 2027 | 2503 |
| 2028 | 2464 |
| 2029 | 2373 |
| 2030 | 2375 |
| 2031 | 2357 |
It is clear from the table above that the next seven years of projected primary pupil numbers expected to enter secondary in Year 7 above, should be catered for following the councils capital expansion to increase places in some schools. As projected due to lower birth rates, less children will be transitioning from primary into secondary thereafter as per Table 17. Any further expansion will be predicated on future housing schemes, for example, West Stockton to ensure we can meet demand whilst carrying a small surplus of between 5% to 10%.
This document was prepared by Darren Coulton in October 2025.